Subproject B4: Model-based prediction and assessment of change impacts in manufacturing systems

The objective of subproject B4 is to develop a method for the prediction and assessment of changes in manufacturing systems. Major challenges to be resolved in order to reach the project’s objective are the development of a graph based domain specific modeling approach for manufacturing systems, the deduction of monetary and non-monetary criteria to assess change impacts, the development of a method for the analysis and prediction of change propagation in manufacturing systems, as well as the application and evaluation of the method in industrial practice to identify suggestions for improvement. Finally, the approach will be integrated into the process of systemic manufacturing change management.

• Control loop model of the manufacturing structure based on recurrent fuzzy systems 
  • Simulation of manufacturing structures in control loop models 
  • Fuzzy controller imitates decision-making of a system expert 
• Simulation of high-level interdependencies of cycles in the manufacturing domain       
  • Development of the “Cycle Information Sheet” (CIS) as a unified documentation tool       
  • Conceptual and formal modeling of cycles by means of System Dynamics  
• Cycle-oriented method for planning of manufacturing structure adaptations       
  • Planning of manufacturing structure changes       
  • Assessment of different change scenarios and identification of beneficial adaptation points

• Method for the prediction and assessment of change impact in manufacturing 
• In-depth understanding of change propagation phenomena in complex socio-technical systems 
• Quantitative multi-criteria decision support for the comparison of alternative change options 
• Providing a basis for budgeting and project management of changes in manufacturing

• Plehn, C., Stein, F., de Neufville, R. and Reinhart, G. (2016), “Assessing the Impact of Changes and their Knock-on Effects in Manufacturing Systems”, paper presented at 49th CIRP Conference on Manufacturing Systems, May 25 - 27, Stuttgart. (submission accepted) 
• Plehn, C., Ostermeier, F., Remmel, F., de Neufville, R. and Reinhart, G. (2015), “Towards a Uniform Understanding of Changeability Terminology – A Multidisciplinary Review”, CIRP Journal of Manufacturing Science and Technology. (submission in review)
• Plehn, C., Stein, F. and Reinhart, G. (2015), “Modeling Factory Systems Using Graphs: Ontology-based Design of a Domain Specific Modeling Approach”, International Conference on Engineering Design (ICED 2015).
• Plehn, C., Koch, J., Diepold, K., Stahl, B., Lohmann, B., Reinhart, G. and Zäh, M.F. (2015), “Modeling and analyzing dynamic cycle networks for manufacturing planning”, Procedia CIRP, Vol. 28, pp. 149–154.